Daftar Isi
- Pendahuluan
- 1 Struktur Sepak Bola Liga
- 2 Taruhan Sepak Bola
- 2.1 Taruhan Pari-mutuel
- 2.2 Taruhan Odds Tetap
- 2.3 Asian Handicap (Hang Cheng)
- Asian Handicap vs. Odds Tetap
- 2.5 Taruhan Spread
- 2.6 Taruhan Orang-ke-Orang
- 3 Isu Taruhan
- 4 Persentase Pengembalian
- 5 Taruhan Internet
- 6 Perpajakan
- 7 Ruang Lingkup Tesis
- Tinjauan Pustaka
- 1 Pendekatan Maher-Poisson
- 2 Skema Prediksi Alternatif
- 2.1 Peringkat Elo dan Model Bradley-Terry
- 2.2 Model Probit Terurut Multinomial
- 3 Strategi Taruhan
- 3.1 Taruhan Optimal Tanpa Batasan untuk Satu Koin Bias
- 3.2 Taruhan Optimal Tanpa Batasan untuk Banyak Koin Bias
- 3.3 Lebih Lanjut tentang Kriteria Kelly
- Deskripsi Data dan Formulasi Model
- 1 Deskripsi Data
- 2 Formulasi Regresi Poisson
- 2.1 Asumsi
- 2.2 Model Dasar
- 2.3 Model Parameter Kandang Terpisah
- 2.4 Model Musim Terpisah
- 2.5 Perbandingan Model Poisson dengan Data Musim Penuh
- 2.6 Data Odds dan Model E(Skor)
- 2.7 Model Koreksi Poisson
- 2.8 Model Tertimbang
- 3 Perbandingan Model Poisson Minggu per Minggu
- 4 Peringkat Elo
- 5 Model Probit Terurut Multinomial
- 6 Perbandingan Pendekatan
- Strategi Taruhan dan Validasi Model
- 1 Taruhan Nilai
- 2 Strategi Taruhan
- 3 Manajemen Uang
- 4 Validasi pada Data yang Ada
- Diskusi
- 5.1 Implementasi Sistem
- 5.2 Aplikasi Sistem
- 5.2.1 Sudut Pandang Bandar
- 5.2.2 Sudut Pandang Petaruh
- 6 Ringkasan dan Pekerjaan Masa Depan
- 6.1 Ringkasan
- 6.2 Pekerjaan Masa Depan
- 6.2.1 Koreksi Residual
- 6.2.2 Jenis Taruhan Lain
- 6.2.3 Kerangka Bayesian
- Lampiran
- Lampiran A
Lampiran
Lampiran A
sunderland 0.26128400 0.27698961 0.94329892 tottenham 0.22564444 0.27646742 0.81617009
25237477 wimbledon 0.60385220 0.24273300 2.48772190 (Dispersion Parameter for Poisson family taken to be 1 ) Null Deviance: 549.8061 on 760 degrees of freedom Residual Deviance: 392.8681 on 340 degrees of freedom Table D.2 S-Plus output of the first half of the season 99-00
20862491 villa -0.39163024 0.25260782 -1.55034887 bradford -0.54272934 0.26726749 -2.03065981 chelsea -0.42374071 0.24732011 -1.71332897 coventry -0.59704330 0.27456666 -2.17449307 derby -0.40038806 0.25173327 -1.59052501 everton -0.43686698 0.25838984 -1.69072815 leeds -0.43828573 0.26384727 -1.66113421 leicester -0.31540003 0.25447143 -1.23943202 liverpool -0.62770692 0.27949432 -2.24586645 u 0.15962732 0.21985332 0.72606284 middlesbrough -0.49402055 0.26779904 -1.84474357 newcastle -0.27331082 0.24571065 -1.11232797 w -0.66525973 0.27128318 -2.45227045 southampton -0.62185816 0.26470579 -2.34924276 sunderland -0.52184578 0.26465258 -1.97181443 tottenham -0.39213443 0.25521010 -1.53651615 watford -0.61129731 0.27593916 -2.21533368 ham -0.33900559 0.24635067 -1.37610989 wimbledon -0.87753010 0.30771276 -2.85178325 arsenal 0.47384249 0.27645732 1.71398059 villa 0.01110346 0.30759285 0.03609793 bradford 0.94445940 0.23158170 4.07829883 chelsea -0.06217843 0.30020306 -0.20712124
95862691 wimbledon 0.96889237 0.23164408 4.18267701 (Dispersion Parameter for Poisson family taken to be 1 ) Null Deviance: 538.3198 on 760 degrees of freedom Residual Deviance: 393.6574 on 340 degrees of freedom Table D.3 S-Plus output of the second half of the season 99-00
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